India’s Strategic Reorientation in Post-2021 Afghanistan

Navigating Strained Taliban–Pakistan Relations

Abstract

The return of the Taliban to power in Afghanistan in August 2021 fundamentally changed the geopolitical and strategic landscape of South Asia. The fall of the Western-backed Afghan Republic and the exit of US and NATO forces posed new regional security challenges, heightened geopolitical competition, and changed interstate relations in the region. Initially, Pakistan saw the Taliban’s return to power as a strategically beneficial development. However, developments after 2021 increasingly exposed the cracks in relations between the Taliban regime and Pakistan over the Durand Line dispute, cross-border militancy, the activities of the Tehrik-i-Taliban Pakistan (TTP), and border management. Such evolving tensions gradually altered the regional balance of power and provided new strategic openings for India to recalibrate its Afghanistan policy.
This paper analyses India’s strategic recalibration in Afghanistan after 2021 in the context of deteriorating Taliban-Pakistan relations. The study analyses India’s diplomatic engagement, security calculations, economic interests and geopolitical strategy towards Taliban-led Afghanistan using the theoretical lenses of Realism, Liberalism and Constructivism to understand how changing regional dynamics have influenced these factors. The paper contends that India has moved from strategic disengagement to cautious engagement to safeguard its security interests, to preserve regional connectivity, to maintain developmental influence and to counterbalance the growing roles of Pakistan and China in Afghanistan. India’s re-engagement through humanitarian assistance, diplomatic outreach, economic cooperation and soft power initiatives is a pragmatic adjustment to the changing geopolitical realities, not a formal political endorsement of the Taliban regime.
The study further highlights that despite emerging opportunities arising from Taliban–Pakistan tensions, India’s Afghanistan policy continues to face significant challenges, including terrorism, political instability, regional power competition, connectivity constraints, and concerns related to legitimacy and human rights. The paper concludes that India is likely to continue pursuing a cautious, calibrated, and interest-driven approach toward Afghanistan while balancing strategic engagement with regional security concerns and broader geopolitical considerations in South Asia.